TY - JOUR AU - Schroeder, S. Andrew PY - 2021/03/19 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions: Reassessing the IHME’s Model JF - Philosophy of Medicine JA - philmed VL - 2 IS - 1 SE - The Examination Room DO - 10.5195/pom.2021.43 UR - https://philmed.pitt.edu/philmed/article/view/43 SP - AB - <p>The IHME Covid-19 prediction model has been one of the most influential Covid models in the United States. Early on, it received heavy criticism for understating the extent of the epidemic. I argue that this criticism was based on a misunderstanding of the model. The model was best interpreted not as attempting to forecast the actual course of the epidemic. Rather, it was attempting to make a conditional projection: telling us how the epidemic would unfold, given certain assumptions. This misunderstanding of the IHME’s model prevented the public from seeing how dire the model’s projections actually were.</p> ER -