Rarely Just About One Model

Multi-Model and Multi-Methodology Reasoning in Epidemic Modeling

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5195/pom.2024.208

Keywords:

Epidemic models, Covid 19, Compartment models, Network models

Abstract

In this paper, I argue that epidemic modeling of disease spreading involves both multi-model as well as multi-methodology reasoning. I demonstrate that epidemic modeling includes two different modeling methodologies: compartment and network modeling. Furthermore, within each of those methodologies, models are often constructed as structured groups of models, rather than as single models. I analyse the epistemic advantages of this mode of modeling, including complementary reasoning with different modeling methodologies and the ability to easily compare explanatory advantages of different models.

 

References

Ando, Shiho, Yuki Matsuzawa, Hiromichi Tsurui, Tetsuya Mizutani, Damien Hall, and Yutaka Kuroda. 2021. “Stochastic Modelling of the Effects of Human-Mobility Restriction and Viral Infection Characteristics on the Spread of COVID-19.” Nature Scientific Reports 11, article 6856. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86027-2.

Bedson, Jamie, Laura A. Skrip, Danielle Pedi, Sharon Abramowitz, Simone Carter, Mohamed F. Jalloh, Sebastian Funk, et al. 2021. “A Review and Agenda for Integrated Disease Models Including Social and Behavioural Factors.” Nature Human Behaviour 5, no. 7: 834–846. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01136-2.

Bokulich, Alisa. 2003. “Horizontal Models: From Bakers to Cats.” Philosophy of Science 70, no. 3: 609–627. https://doi.org/10.1086/376927.

———. 2014. “How the Tiger Bush Got Its Stripes: ‘How Possibly’ vs. ‘How Actually’ Model Explanations.” The Monist 97, no. 3: 321–338. https://doi.org/10.5840/monist201497321.

———. 2015. “Maxwell, Helmholtz, and the Unreasonable Effectiveness of the Method of Physical Analogy.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 50: 28–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2014.09.012.

———. 2017. “Models and Explanation.” In Springer Handbook of Model-Based Science, edited by Lorenzo Magnani and Tommaso Wayne Bertolotti, 103–118. London: Springer.

Brandes, Ulrik, and Thomas Erlebach, eds. 2005. Network Analysis: Methodological Foundations. Berlin: Springer.

Brauer, Fred, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, and Zhilan Feng. 2019. Mathematical Models in Epidemiology. Berlin: Springer.

Brauer, Fred, Pauline van den Driessche, and Jianhong Wu, eds. 2008. Mathematical Epidemiology. Berlin: Springer.

Broadbent, Alex. 2009. “Causation and Models of Disease in Epidemiology.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 40, no. 4: 302–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsc.2009.09.006.

———. 2011. “Inferring Causation in Epidemiology: Mechanisms, Black Boxes and Contrasts.” In Causality in Science, edited by Phyllis McKay Illari, Federica Russo, and Jon Williamson, 45–69. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

———. 2013. Philosophy of Epidemiology. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

Chang, Sheryl L., Nathan Harding, Cameron Zachreson, Oliver M. Cliff, and Mikhail Prokopenko. 2020. “Modelling Transmission and Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia.” Nature Communications 11, article 5710. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6.

Chowell, Gerardo, Lisa Sattenspiel, Shweta Bansal, and Cécile Viboud. 2016. “Mathematical Models to Characterize Early Epidemic Growth: A Review.” Physics of Life Reviews 18: 66–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005.

Crépey, Pascal, Harold Noël, and Samuel Alizon. 2022. “Challenges for Mathematical Epidemiological Modelling.” Anaesthesia Critical Care & Pain Medicine 41, no. 2, article 101053. https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.accpm.2022.101053.

Da Costa, Newton C.A., and Steven French. 2003. Science and Partial Truth: A Unitary Approach to Models and Scientific Reasoning. New York: Oxford University Press.

De la Sen, M., and S. Alonso-Quesada. 2011. “Vaccination Strategies Based on Feedback Control Techniques for a General SEIR-Epidemic Model.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 218, no. 7: 3888–3904. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2011.09.036.

———. 2015. “On the Stability of a SEIR Epidemic Model with Distributed Time-Delay and a General Class of Feedback Vaccination Rules.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 270: 953–976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2015.08.099.

De la Sen, M., & Ibeas, A. 2021. “On an SE(Is)(Ih)AR Epidemic Model with Combined Vaccination and Antiviral Controls for COVID-19 Pandemic.” Advances in Difference Equations, article 92: 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03248-5.

Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A.T. Cummings, Simon Cauchemez, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Aronrag Meeyai, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, and Donald S. Burke. 2005. “Strategies for Containing an Emerging Influenza Pandemic in Southeast Asia.” Nature 437, no. 7056: 209–214. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04017.

Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A.T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley, and Donald S. Burke. 2006. “Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.” Nature 442, no. 7101: 448–452. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04795.

Frigg, Roman, and Stephan Hartmann. 2020. “Models in Science.” In The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Spring 2020 Edition), edited by Edward N. Zalta. https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2020/entries/models-science/.

Gani, J. 1990. “Epidemic Modelling and Simulation.” Mathematics and Computers in Simulation 32, no. 1–2: 3–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4754(90)90211-Z.

Iranzo, Valeriano, and Saúl Pérez-González. 2021. “Epidemiological Models and COVID-19: A Comparative View.” History and Philosophy of the Life Sciences 43, no. 3, article 104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40656-021-00457-9.

Jansson, Lina. 2020. “Network Explanations and Explanatory Directionality.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 375, no. 1796, article 20190318. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0318.

Keeling, Matt J., and Pejman Rohani. 2008. Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Kincaid, Harold. 2011. “Causal Modelling, Mechanism and Probability in Epidemiology.” In Causality in Science, edited by Phyllis McKay Illari, Federica Russo, and Jon Williamson, 70–90. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Kiss, Istvan Z., Joel C. Miller, and Peter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks From Exact to Approximate Models. Berlin: Springer.

Knuuttila, Tarja, and Vivette García Deister. 2019. “Modelling Gene Regulation: (De)compositional and Template-Based Strategies. ” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 77: 101–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2017.11.002.

Kretzschmar, Mirjam. 2020. “Disease Modeling for Public Health: Added Value, Challenges, and Institutional Constraints.” Journal of Public Health Policy 41, no. 1: 39–51. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41271-019-00206-0.

Lewis, Ted G. 2009. Network Science: Theory and Application. New York: Wiley.

Lloyd, Alun L., and Steve Valeika. 2007. “Network Models in Epidemiology: An Overview.” In Complex Population Dynamics: Nonlinear Modeling in Ecology, Epidemiology and Genetics, edited by Bernd Blasius, Jürgen Kurths, and Lewi Stone, 189–214. Singapore: World Scientific.

Massimi, Michela, and Casey D. McCoy, eds. 2020. Understanding Perspectivism: Scientific Challenges and Methodological Prospects. London: Routledge.

Masuda, Naoki, and Petter Holme, eds. 2017. Temporal Network Epidemiology. Singapore: Springer Nature.

Meehan, Michael T., Diana P. Rojas, Adeshina I. Adekunle, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Jamie M. Caldwell, Evelyn Turek, Bridget M. Williams, Ben J. Marais, James M. Trauer, and Emma S. McBryde. 2020. “Modelling Insights into the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Paediatric Respiratory Reviews 35: 64–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prrv.2020.06.014.

Meng, Xueyu, Zhiqiang Cai, Shubin Si, and Dongli Duan. 2021. “Analysis of Epidemic Vaccination Strategies on Heterogeneous Network: Based on SEIRV Model and Evolutionary Game.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 403, article 126172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126172.

Mollison, Denis, ed. 2003. Epidemic Models: Their Structure and Relation to Data. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Newman, Mark E.J. 2002. “Spread of Epidemic Disease on Networks.” Physical Review E 66, article 016128: 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.66.016128.

Northcott, Robert. 2022. “Pandemic Modeling, Good and Bad.” Philosophy of Medicine 3, no. 1: 1–20. https://doi.org/10.5195/pom.2022.79.

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2001. “Epidemic Spreading in Scale-Free Networks.” Physical Review Letters 86, no. 14: 3200–3203. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200.

Plutynski, Anya. 2014. “Philosophy of Epidemiology. Alex Broadbent, Palgrave Macmillan, London, 2013, p. 228, Price £55.00 hardback, ISBN 9780230355125.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 46: 107–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsc.2013.12.007.

Reutlinger, Alexander, and Juha Saatsi, eds. 2018. Explanation Beyond Causation: Philosophical Perspectives on Non-Causal Explanations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Rhodes, Tim, Kari Lancaster, Shelley Lees, and Melissa Parker. 2020. “Modelling the Pandemic: Attuning Models to Their Contexts.” BMJ Global Health 5, no. 6: 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002914.

Rose, Christopher, Andrew J. Medford, C. Franklin Goldsmith, Tejs Vegge, Joshua S. Weitz, and Andrew A. Peterson. 2021. “Heterogeneity in Susceptibility Dictates the Order of Epidemic Models.” Journal of Theoretical Biology 528, article 110839: 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110839.

Salmon, Wesley C. 1984. Scientific Explanation and the Causal Structure of the World. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Song, Xinyu, Yu Jiang, and Huiming Wei. 2009. “Analysis of a Saturation Incidence SVEIRS Epidemic Model with Pulse and Two Times Delay.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 214, no. 2: 381–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2009.04.005.

Winsberg, Eric. 2010. Science in the Age of Computer Simulation. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Wolfram, Stephen. 2002. A New Kind of Science. Champaign: Wolfram Media.

Zhang, Tailei. 2015. “Permanence and Extinction in a Nonautonomous Discrete SIRVS Model with Vaccination.” Applied Mathematics and Computation 271: 716–729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2015.09.071.

Zuchowski, Lena. 2019. “Modelling and Knowledge Transfer in Complexity Science.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 77: 120–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2017.10.003.

Downloads

Published

2024-11-01

How to Cite

Zuchowski, L. (2024). Rarely Just About One Model: Multi-Model and Multi-Methodology Reasoning in Epidemic Modeling. Philosophy of Medicine, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.5195/pom.2024.208

Issue

Section

Original Research Articles (epidemiology, public health, health policy)