How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions

Reassessing the IHME’s Model

Authors

  • S. Andrew Schroeder Associate Professor of Philosophy, Claremont McKenna College

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5195/pom.2021.43

Keywords:

modeling, philosophy of science, epidemiology, COVID-19, forecasting

Abstract

The IHME Covid-19 prediction model has been one of the most influential Covid models in the United States. Early on, it received heavy criticism for understating the extent of the epidemic. I argue that this criticism was based on a misunderstanding of the model. The model was best interpreted not as attempting to forecast the actual course of the epidemic. Rather, it was attempting to make a conditional projection: telling us how the epidemic would unfold, given certain assumptions. This misunderstanding of the IHME’s model prevented the public from seeing how dire the model’s projections actually were.

References

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Tufekci, Zeynep. 2020. “Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models.” The Atlantic, 2 April 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/.

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Published

2021-03-19

How to Cite

Schroeder, S. A. (2021). How to Interpret Covid-19 Predictions: Reassessing the IHME’s Model. Philosophy of Medicine, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.5195/pom.2021.43

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021)

Section

The Examination Room

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